A challenging week across seven competitions and six countries. The 23 April La Liga day was the toughest of the week — and the most honest lesson. All selections logged without filter.
All 30 fixed-odds selections from Week 3 — match by match
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense vs Estoril | Draw | 3.35 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–0 | Portugal |
| San Lorenzo vs Velez | San Lorenzo win | 3.10 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–0 | Argentina |
| Gaziantep vs Kayserispor | Gaziantep win | 2.38 | Correct | +1.38 | 3–0 | Turkey |
| Fiorentina vs Lecce | Fiorentina win | 2.23 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | Serie A |
| Crystal Palace vs West Ham | Crystal Palace win | 2.56 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–0 | EPL |
| 21 Apr subtotal | –2.62u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca vs Valencia | Mallorca win | 2.61 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | La Liga |
| Girona vs Real Betis | Girona win | 2.47 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 2–3 | La Liga |
| Brighton vs Chelsea | Brighton win | 2.47 | Correct | +1.47 | 3–0 | EPL |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna | Athletic Bilbao win | 1.87 | Correct | +0.87 | 1–0 | La Liga |
| Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves | Real Madrid win | 1.24 | Correct | +0.24 | 2–1 | La Liga |
| 22 Apr subtotal | +1.58u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona vs Celta Vigo | Barcelona win | 1.28 | Correct | +0.28 | 1–0 | La Liga |
| Burnley vs Man City | Man City win | 1.15 | Correct | +0.15 | 0–1 | EPL |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds | Bournemouth win | 2.05 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 2–2 | EPL |
| Real Sociedad vs Getafe | Real Sociedad win | 2.16 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | La Liga |
| Elche vs Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid win | 2.81 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 3–2 | La Liga |
| 23 Apr subtotal | –2.57u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar | AZ Alkmaar win | 2.31 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–0 | Eredivisie |
| PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle | PSV win | 1.21 | Correct | +0.21 | 6–1 | Eredivisie |
| Levante vs Sevilla | Sevilla win | 2.94 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 2–0 | La Liga |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol | Rayo win | 2.12 | Correct | +1.12 | 1–0 | La Liga |
| Real Oviedo vs Villarreal | Villarreal win | 2.17 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | La Liga |
| 24 Apr subtotal | –0.67u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca vs Arouca | FC Alverca win | 2.23 | Correct | +1.23 | 2–1 | Portugal |
| Napoli vs Cremonese | Napoli win | 1.32 | Correct | +0.32 | 4–0 | Serie A |
| Sunderland vs Nott'm Forest | Sunderland win | 2.63 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–5 | EPL |
| RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin | RB Leipzig win | 1.45 | Correct | +0.45 | 3–1 | Bundesliga |
| Real Betis vs Real Madrid | Real Madrid win | 1.89 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | La Liga |
| Fulham vs Aston Villa | Aston Villa win | 2.60 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–0 | EPL |
| 25 Apr subtotal | –0.00u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna vs Sevilla | Osasuna win | 1.99 | Correct | +0.99 | 2–1 | La Liga |
| Villarreal vs Celta Vigo | Villarreal win | 2.02 | Correct | +1.02 | 2–1 | La Liga |
| Real Oviedo vs Elche | Real Oviedo win | 2.42 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–2 | La Liga |
| Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Dortmund win | 1.37 | Correct | +0.37 | 4–0 | Bundesliga |
| VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Stuttgart win | 1.54 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | Bundesliga |
| 26 Apr subtotal | +1.38u | |||||
| 1X2 Week 3 total — 30 selections | –2.90u |
All 30 AH selections from Week 3 — match by match
| Match | AH Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo vs Velez | San Lorenzo +0 | 0.83 MY | Draw — void | 0.00 | 0–0 | Argentina |
| Gaziantep vs Kayserispor | Gaziantep –0.25 | 0.94 MY | Correct | +0.94 | 3–0 | Turkey |
| Estoril vs Moreirense | Moreirense +0.25 | 0.89 MY | Correct | +0.89 | 1–0 | Portugal |
| Fiorentina vs Lecce | Fiorentina –0.25 | 0.91 MY | Half incorrect | –0.50 | 1–1 | Serie A |
| Crystal Palace vs West Ham | Crystal Palace +0 | 0.83 MY | Draw — void | 0.00 | 0–0 | EPL |
| 21 Apr subtotal | +1.33u | |||||
| Match | AH Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca vs Valencia | Mallorca +0 | 0.87 MY | Draw — void | 0.00 | 1–1 | La Liga |
| Girona vs Real Betis | Girona –0.25 | 0.90 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 2–3 | La Liga |
| Brighton vs Chelsea | Brighton +0 | 0.86 MY | Correct | +0.86 | 3–0 | EPL |
| Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna | Athletic Bilbao –0.5 | 0.87 MY | Correct | +0.87 | 1–0 | La Liga |
| Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves | Real Madrid –1.75 | 0.87 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 2–1 | La Liga |
| 22 Apr subtotal | +0.73u | |||||
| Match | AH Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona vs Celta Vigo | Barcelona –1.75 | 0.85 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–0 | La Liga |
| Burnley vs Man City | Man City –2.25 | 0.95 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | EPL |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds | Bournemouth –0.25 | 0.79 MY | Half incorrect | –0.50 | 2–2 | EPL |
| Real Sociedad vs Getafe | Real Sociedad –0.25 | 0.83 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | La Liga |
| Elche vs Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid +0.25 | 0.85 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 3–2 | La Liga |
| 23 Apr subtotal | –4.50u | |||||
| Match | AH Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar | AZ Alkmaar –0.25 | 0.98 MY | Half incorrect | –0.50 | 0–0 | Eredivisie |
| PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle | PSV –2 | 0.81 MY | Correct | +0.81 | 6–1 | Eredivisie |
| Levante vs Sevilla | Sevilla +0.25 | 0.81 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 2–0 | La Liga |
| Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol | Rayo –0.25 | 0.84 MY | Correct | +0.84 | 1–0 | La Liga |
| Real Oviedo vs Villarreal | Villarreal –0.25 | 0.87 MY | Half incorrect | –0.50 | 1–1 | La Liga |
| 24 Apr subtotal | –0.35u | |||||
| Match | AH Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca vs Arouca | FC Alverca –0.25 | 0.93 MY | Correct | +0.93 | 2–1 | Portugal |
| Napoli vs Cremonese | Napoli –1.25 | 0.86 MY | Correct | +0.86 | 4–0 | Serie A |
| Sunderland vs Nott'm Forest | Sunderland +0 | 0.97 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–5 | EPL |
| RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin | RB Leipzig –1.25 | 0.97 MY | Correct | +0.97 | 3–1 | Bundesliga |
| Real Betis vs Real Madrid | Real Madrid –0.5 | 0.89 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | La Liga |
| Fulham vs Aston Villa | Aston Villa AH | 0.97 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–0 | EPL |
| Arsenal vs Newcastle | Arsenal –1.25 | 0.98 MY | Half incorrect | –0.50 | 1–0 | EPL |
| Getafe vs Barcelona | Barcelona –0.75 | 0.91 MY | Correct | +0.91 | 0–2 | La Liga |
| Liverpool vs Crystal Palace | Liverpool –1 | 0.87 MY | Correct | +0.87 | 3–1 | EPL |
| Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao | Atletico –0.25 | 0.79 MY | Correct | +0.79 | 3–2 | La Liga |
| 25 Apr subtotal | +2.83u | |||||
| Match | AH Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna vs Sevilla | Osasuna –0.5 | 0.99 MY | Correct | +0.99 | 2–1 | La Liga |
| Villarreal vs Celta Vigo | Villarreal –0.5 | 0.98 MY | Correct | +0.98 | 2–1 | La Liga |
| Real Oviedo vs Elche | Real Oviedo –0.25 | 0.96 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–2 | La Liga |
| Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Dortmund –1.25 | 0.82 MY | Correct | +0.82 | 4–0 | Bundesliga |
| VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Stuttgart –1 | 0.88 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | Bundesliga |
| 26 Apr subtotal | +0.79u | |||||
| AH Week 3 total — 30 selections | –1.74u |
This was the toughest week of the three-week period. The combined figure of –4.64u reflects a week where the mid-week La Liga analysis was significantly off — particularly on 23 April where the AH arm went 0 from 5. Atletico losing at Elche, Real Sociedad failing at home to Getafe and Bournemouth dropping two points against Leeds were all results that contradicted the analytical framework. We log them all.
The recovery on 25–26 April was meaningful — Napoli, RB Leipzig, Barcelona, Liverpool, Osasuna, Villarreal and Dortmund all delivered on both 1X2 and AH. That shows the framework is sound. One bad two-day stretch in the middle of the week distorted the weekly total significantly.
Three-week combined total stands at +9.38u. The AH arm, which led in Weeks 1 and 2, gave back ground this week. The 1X2 arm's Sassuolo pick at 6.20 from Week 2 remains the standout selection of the period. We go into Week 4 with the process unchanged.
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