The full match-by-match analytical record for our first week of publication. Every selection logged. Every outcome recorded. No filter — including the incorrect calls.
All 14 fixed-odds selections from Week 1 — match by match
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter vs Roma | Inter win | 1.66 | Correct | +0.66 | 5–2 | Serie A |
| Monaco vs Marseille | Monaco win | 2.15 | Correct | +1.15 | 2–1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oviedo vs Sevilla | Draw | 3.10 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–0 | La Liga |
| Valencia vs Celta | Celta X2 | 2.30 | Correct | +1.30 | 1–2 | La Liga |
| St. Pauli vs Union | St. Pauli win | 2.05 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | Bundesliga |
| 6 Apr subtotal | +1.11u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG vs Liverpool | PSG win | 1.78 | Correct | +0.78 | 2–0 | UCL |
| Barcelona vs Atletico | Barcelona win | 1.50 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–2 | UCL |
| 9 Apr subtotal | –0.22u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna vs Aston Villa | Aston Villa win | 2.14 | Correct | +1.14 | 1–3 | UEL |
| Porto vs Nott'm Forest | Porto win | 2.19 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | UEL |
| 10 Apr subtotal | +0.14u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg vs Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim win | 2.09 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 2–2 | Bundesliga |
| West Ham vs Wolves | West Ham win | 1.86 | Correct | +0.86 | 4–0 | EPL |
| Marseille vs Metz | Marseille win | 1.24 | Correct | +0.24 | 3–1 | Ligue 1 |
| Real Madrid vs Girona | Real Madrid win | 1.33 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | La Liga |
| Roma vs Pisa | Roma win | 1.35 | Correct | +0.35 | 3–0 | Serie A |
| 11 Apr subtotal | +0.45u | |||||
| Match | Selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund vs Leverkusen | Dortmund win | 2.04 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | Bundesliga |
| Atalanta vs Juventus | Atalanta win | 3.00 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | Serie A |
| Barcelona vs Espanyol | Barcelona win | 1.30 | Correct | +0.30 | 4–1 | La Liga |
| St. Pauli vs Bayern | Bayern win | 1.38 | Correct | +0.38 | 0–5 | Bundesliga |
| Arsenal vs Bournemouth | Arsenal win | 1.44 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–2 | EPL |
| Chelsea vs Man City | Man City X2 | 2.00 | Correct | +1.00 | 0–3 | EPL |
| Sunderland vs Spurs | Sunderland win | 2.74 | Correct | +1.74 | 1–0 | EPL |
| Mainz vs Freiburg | Mainz win | 2.31 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | Bundesliga |
| Parma vs Napoli | Napoli win | 1.59 | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | Serie A |
| 12 Apr subtotal | +0.42u | |||||
| 1X2 Week 1 total — 14 selections | +1.48u | |||||
All 20 AH selections from Week 1 — match by match
| Match | AH selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter vs Roma | Inter –0.75 | 1.85 | Correct | +0.85 | 5–2 | Serie A |
| Monaco vs Marseille | Monaco –0.25 | 1.90 | Correct | +0.90 | 2–1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oviedo vs Sevilla | Oviedo +0.5 | 2.00 | Correct | +1.00 | 1–0 | La Liga |
| Valencia vs Celta | Celta +0.25 | 1.85 | Correct | +0.85 | 1–2 | La Liga |
| St. Pauli vs Union | St. Pauli –0.25 | 1.90 | Half incorrect | –0.50 | 1–1 | Bundesliga |
| 6 Apr subtotal | +3.10u | |||||
| Match | AH selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid vs Bayern | Real Madrid +0.25 | 0.84 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–2 | UCL |
| Sporting vs Arsenal | Arsenal –0.5 | 0.88 MY | Correct | +0.88 | 0–1 | UCL |
| 8 Apr subtotal | –0.12u | |||||
| Match | AH selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG vs Liverpool | PSG –0.75 | 1.00 MY | Correct | +1.00 | 2–0 | UCL |
| Barcelona vs Atletico | Barcelona –1 | 0.82 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–2 | UCL |
| 9 Apr subtotal | 0.00u | |||||
| Match | AH selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna vs Aston Villa | Aston Villa –0.25 | 0.85 MY | Correct | +0.85 | 1–3 | UEL |
| Porto vs Nott'm Forest | Porto –0.25 | 0.88 MY | Half incorrect | –0.50 | 1–1 | UEL |
| 10 Apr subtotal | +0.35u | |||||
| Match | AH selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg vs Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim –0.25 | 0.83 MY | Half incorrect | –0.50 | 2–2 | Bundesliga |
| West Ham vs Wolves | West Ham –0.5 | 0.85 MY | Correct | +0.85 | 4–0 | EPL |
| Real Madrid vs Girona | Real Madrid –1.5 | 0.89 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | La Liga |
| Roma vs Pisa | Roma –1.25 | 0.80 MY | Correct | +0.80 | 3–0 | Serie A |
| Marseille vs Metz | Marseille –1.75 | 0.85 MY | Half correct | +0.43 | 3–1 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Apr subtotal | +0.58u | |||||
| Match | AH selection | Price | Outcome | Units | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund vs Leverkusen | Dortmund –0.25 | 0.80 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | Bundesliga |
| Atalanta vs Juventus | Atalanta +0.25 | 0.88 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | Serie A |
| Barcelona vs Espanyol | Barcelona –1.5 | 0.82 MY | Correct | +0.82 | 4–1 | La Liga |
| St. Pauli vs Bayern | Bayern –1.25 | 0.86 MY | Correct | +0.86 | 0–5 | Bundesliga |
| Arsenal vs Bournemouth | Arsenal –1.25 | 1.00 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–2 | EPL |
| Chelsea vs Man City | Man City –0.5 | 1.00 MY | Correct | +1.00 | 0–3 | EPL |
| Sunderland vs Spurs | Sunderland +0 | 0.99 MY | Correct | +0.99 | 1–0 | EPL |
| Mainz vs Freiburg | Mainz –0.25 | 0.98 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 0–1 | Bundesliga |
| Forest vs Aston Villa | Aston Villa AH | –0.98 MY | Draw — void | 0.00 | 1–1 | EPL |
| Parma vs Napoli | Napoli –1 | 0.94 MY | Incorrect | –1.00 | 1–1 | Serie A |
| 12 Apr subtotal | –1.33u | |||||
| AH Week 1 total — 20 selections | +5.73u | |||||
A solid opening week for the AH arm at +5.73u across 20 selections — the quarter-ball hedge structure proved its value on the first day, picking up full returns on Oviedo and Celta while limiting damage on St. Pauli. The UCL coverage was mixed — PSG delivered cleanly but Barcelona's collapse against Atletico in a match we had them winning by two was the standout incorrect call of the week.
The 1X2 arm performed at 64% accuracy but the flat-odds nature of the picks kept the unit return modest at +1.48u. Sunderland at 2.74 was the standout — a selection the market underpriced given their home form and Spurs' depleted squad.
The tough day on 12 April — five AH incorrects — is a reminder that short-price favourites on heavy Asian Handicap lines carry genuine risk. Dortmund and Atalanta both underperformed to their price. That is football. We log it and move forward.
Members receive every selection, every matchday — with complete reasoning delivered before the match starts.
Become a Member →All analysis published by The Kickoff Brief is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Past analytical performance does not guarantee future results. Football outcomes are inherently unpredictable and individual results will vary significantly week to week. The Kickoff Brief is not a gambling operator, bookmaker, affiliate, or tips service. Please engage with football responsibly.